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The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly topped 54,200 on Tuesday, breaking a three-session coil beneath its record, but the breakout didn't stick—surrendering the entire move by the close. The pullback underscored how quickly US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz can yank the rug from a momentum trade, with investors still jittery over Tehran's stance that Hormuz will stay closed until Washington meets its conditions.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average spent the entire day trapped within a 200-point range, its narrowest daily bar in weeks, as traders refused to commit ahead of Wednesday's crucial inflation report.
September rate-hike probability collapsed from 67% to 44% in just one week after July Nonfarm Payrolls came in at -23,000 — a gut-punch miss versus the +85,000 consensus. June was revised sharply lower to 20,000 from 57,000. The labor market just hit the brakes, and the Fed's tightening playbook just went through a rewrite.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 54,000 for the first time this week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hitting fresh records. The rally was fueled by a surprisingly weak July jobs report that showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs, well below the expected gain of 83,000. This soft data prompted traders to dial back expectations for a September rate hike, with odds falling from 55% to 45%. Lower rate expectations sent Treasury yields tumbling, and the 2-year...