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The U.S. economy enters this week caught between a dovish repricing and a hawkish rebellion. Friday's weaker-than-expected July jobs report — with unemployment holding at 4.1% — knocked the September rate-hike probability from over 70% down to roughly a coin flip at 50-50. But oil's 20%+ July surge on the Iran-Hormuz standoff has flipped the script again, pushing yields and rate-hike odds back up. Dow futures slipped 0.11% to around 54,000 Tuesday...
US tariff refunds are flowing back to Chinese firms, with $38 million in rebates landing in bank accounts of five listed companies since last month. This windfall comes as the US Senate passes a bill threatening 100% tariffs on top oil-importing nations, creating a two-sided effect where some firms benefit while others face severe new duties.
Brazil's central bank is pushing to expand its Pix...
Weak US jobs data has rewired global trade expectations, sending the dollar lower and lifting equities to record highs. The Fed’s rate‑hike path is now cloudy, with CPI data due Wednesday poised to determine whether the dollar’s slide accelerates.
The US dollar's dominance is forcing the world's central banks into a currency arms race. With the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.50%-3.75%, the ripple effects are reshaping markets from Tokyo to Jakarta. The Fed's "3D chess" strategy—allowing bond yields to rise without hiking—is creating a global scramble for currency protection. Bank of America warns this policy is tightening financial conditions faster than intended, leaving emerging markets scrambling...
The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, a stunning reversal that obliterated expectations and immediately rewrote the script for the Federal Reserve's next move. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, but the real bombshell was the backward-looking revision: May and June payrolls were slashed by a combined 103,000 jobs, painting a far grimmer picture of the labor market's trajectory than anyone had imagined.
This wasn't just a...
Japan and the U.S. executed a massive coordinated yen-buying intervention on July 31, aiming to push USD/JPY below 155. The operation likely surpassed ¥10 trillion ($65 billion) over three trading days, the largest such effort since 2011. Analysts subsequently lowered their year-end USD/JPY forecast to 149 from 152, but skepticism remains about lasting impact.
The U.S. labor market hit a pothole in July, shedding 23,000 jobs and...
Global trade and currency markets are caught in a perfect storm of tariff deadlines, central bank uncertainty, and shifting geopolitical risks. The US labor market's unexpected contraction—23,000 jobs lost in July—has scrambled Federal Reserve calculations, with September...
The US economy suddenly went into reverse in July, shedding 23,000 jobs when economists had forecast a gain of 83,000 — and the Federal Reserve's September rate hike is now a coin flip.
The dollar-yen pair traded at 158.45 on Friday, surrendering nearly half of its gains from the historic US-Japan coordinated intervention that briefly pushed the yen to 155.23 earlier this week. The joint yen-buying operation—the first since 1998—involved selling euros to buy yen, a move that blindsided the European Central Bank, according to the Financial Times.
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5%-3.75% last week, but its internal split is widening fast. Governor Lisa Cook is now openly warning she'll back a rate hike if disinflation stalls, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly points to early signs tariff pressures are fading. The economy is sending mixed signals: services are booming, but hiring has hit a wall.
Factors working against growth:
15% tariff on polysilicon announced by Washington as the Trump administration targets China's chip supply chain. The new levy, paired with price floors on solar and semiconductor raw materials, marks a fresh escalation in the tech trade war. It’s not just about chips — it’s a direct hit on the backbone of the green energy and electronics supply chains.
China’s expanding toolkit of export controls and sanctions is pushing the trade war into uncharted...