Fed on the Edge: Rate Hike Odds Surge as Oil Shock and Inflation Data Loom

Markets are now pricing a 60-63% chance of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike next week — a dramatic shift driven by a perfect storm of oil-driven inflation fears and surprisingly strong labor data. What was once a clear hold has become a coin flip, with the central bank's blackout period starting this week.

The Oil Variable

The calculation changed dramatically after Houthi rebels struck Aramco facilities across Saudi Arabia, pushing West Texas...