Warsh's Hawkish Pivot Turns Jobs Data Into Fed's September Verdict

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has slammed the brakes on any dovish pivot, delivering a hawkish Jackson Hole speech that has markets pricing a ~60% probability of a 0.25% rate hike in September—up from just 41.4% last week.

Headwinds

Factors working against growth and the consumer:

• Persistent inflation: Core PCE inflation remains stuck at 3.3%, with headline PCE at 3.7%, signaling that "underlying trends have not meaningfully improved"...