Oil Surges, BoC on Hold, and Canada's $74B Banking Puzzle

Futures markets are pricing a 99% probability the Bank of Canada keeps its overnight rate steady at 2.25% at the Sept. 2 meeting — its seventh consecutive hold. Q2 GDP roared at a 3.3% annualized pace, the fastest in over three years, but Governor Tiff Macklem is caught in a bind: inflation sits at 3%, above the 2% target, yet the U.S. has slapped 50% tariffs on roughly 5% of Canadian exports with retaliation starting...