US CPI Surges Fed Hike Odds to 90% as Diesel and Shelter Costs Keep Inflation Sticky

The August CPI landed 3.4% year-over-year, with a 0.4% monthly jump—right in line with forecasts. But the core rate, which strips out volatile food and energy, climbed a hotter-than-expected 0.3% on the month, leaving the annual core at 2.4%. That surprise sent fed-funds futures screaming, with the probability of a 25‑basis‑point hike next week vaulting to nearly 90%.

Headwinds

• Energy: Diesel just blew past $6 a gallon for the first...