Fed on the Fence: Rate Hike Odds Spike as Durable Goods Stumble

• GDP: Solid but facing headwinds from trade tensions
• Inflation: Persistent, with energy risks from Middle East
• Jobs: Cooling, with ADP 4-week average at 15K
• Consumer Spending: Weak durable goods orders signal caution

The Checkup

US durable goods orders shocked markets with a 0.3% MoM increase in June, far below the 1.6% forecast and following a revised 4.0% decline in May. This weak manufacturing data arrived just as the Federal Reserve convenes...