Crude oil logged its steepest quarterly decline since 2020, with Brent shedding nearly 40% on peace-deal optimism. But ING strategists warn the euphoria is premature — tanker crossings through Hormuz are running at roughly half of last week's peak, with just 11 crossings on a recent Tuesday versus 24 a week earlier. Renewed US strikes on Iran last weekend reminded markets how fragile the ceasefire really is.

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