The 10-year Treasury yield closed Thursday at 4.7% — its highest since January 2025 and the loftiest level of Trump's second term — as markets priced in a perfect storm of Iran-driven oil shocks, new tariffs, and stubbornly sticky inflation. The Fed meets July 28-29, and while Goldman Sachs pegs the odds of a hold at 65%, the whisper on Wall Street is getting louder: a September rate hike is no longer unthinkable.

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