Bank of Canada data watchers see a clear path to holding the policy rate steady at the June meeting. Weak first-quarter GDP and softer employment prints give the central bank cover to pause for a fifth straight decision, supporting bonds and keeping borrowing costs from rising further for households already stretched by high housing costs.

The Bear Case

Oil price spikes and the loonie’s slide to a fresh 2026 low of 71.67 cents U.S. are flashing inflation warnings....