Soft Data Pile Forces Fed Rate Hike Bets to Slide Below 30%

The narrative around the Fed has flipped in a single trading week. At the end of July, market-implied odds for a September rate hike stood at 70%; by Monday morning, those bets had cratered to just 30.6% according to CME FedWatch data. The catalyst? A trifecta of disappointing U.S. releases—retail sales unexpectedly declining in July, softer consumer confidence readings, and a series of cooling inflation prints—that together paint a consumer who's tapping the...