- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50%–3.75% — held in July, but September hike now priced at 66%
- Inflation: 3.7% headline, 3.3% core PCE — stuck above 2% target for 5½ years
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.744% — highest since January 2025
- WTI Crude: $85.92/bbl — climbing on renewed Iran hostilities
- Consumer Spending: "Largely resilient" per Gov. Barr, but price pressures mounting
The Hawk Turn
Fed Governor Michael Barr threw his weight behind Chair...
