UK mortgage rates are climbing as global bond yields spike, with Treasury officials privately briefing that the economy could barely grow next year if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist. Oil holding at $87-88 per barrel keeps the inflation genie partially out of the bottle.

Headwinds

• Iran War Drag: Tehran's threat to extend the conflict until Trump leaves office means no quick fix for shipping disruptions
• Bond Market Stress: US 30-year yields hit...