Cool Inflation, Hot Markets: CPI, PPI, and the Fed's September Dilemma

• Inflation (CPI): 3.4% annual, +0.1% in July — both in line with estimates
• Producer Prices (PPI): Unchanged in July, cooler than the +0.2% expected; annual PPI at 4.7%
• Fed Rate Expectations: 67% probability of unchanged rates in September, up from 55% a week ago
• Mortgage Rates: 6.83% — hovering near yearly highs, softening housing demand

The Checkup

Wall Street delivered a three-peat. The S&P 500 cleared 7,800 for the first time...