The International Monetary Fund just gave the UK a modest pat on the back — upgrading 2026 growth to 1% from an anaemic 0.8%, making Britain the third-fastest growing economy in the G7 and handing Rachel Reeves a final win before her expected exit. Then Donald Trump stood up at the Nato summit in Ankara and declared the Iran ceasefire "over." The whole picture flipped in hours.

Headwinds

• Borrowing costs surge: Ten-year gilt yields stormed **11 basis...